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Los

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  1. Like
    Los reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Of course!
    That is why we can't give Ukraine Javelins, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
    Oh but that is why we can't give Ukraine HIMARS, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
    Anyway, this is definitely why we can't give Ukraine tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.
    But it definitely is why we can't give Ukraine proper air defense systems, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
    This time though, this is why we can't give Ukraine Western tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
    It is however most definitely why we can't give Ukraine long range missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.
    And of course we can't give Ukraine the cluster ammo, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.
    But this time. This time for sure! This time we can't help in any other way, whether it's the grain deal (also known as "Russia manufacturing famine in the third world", something Russia does for fun every once in a while) of jet fighters or more missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do!
    ...
    I took a tram in the city the other day, and saw a teenage girl with Ukraine pin on her backpack. She was wearing a glove over the stump where her right hand should be, and had some black cloth covering part of her thigh where something took out bunch of flesh. World doesn't need more of these.
    But keep coming up with reasons why Russians should be left alone murdering and crippling more and more Ukrainians. Keep calling looking for solutions "bloodlust". I'm sure it's easy and fun thing to do. I wouldn't be able to look myself in the eyes, if I did, but you do you.
  2. Like
    Los got a reaction from Der Zeitgeist in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's the Horus Heresy all over again...
  3. Upvote
    Los got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's the Horus Heresy all over again...
  4. Like
    Los reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So if the Russians mistook AMX-10RCs for Leo 2s, those Russian soldiers who are still alive are firmly in the AMX-10RC is a tank camp.
    Remember those never ending debates on Twitter if the AMX-10RC is a tank or not, when France first agreed to supply them to the AFU? 😎
  5. Like
    Los reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You realize that this sentiment is really the problem, right?  I mean there is nothing categorically wrong in what the ambassador said for an objective point of view.  Russia has not demonstrated that it will act in good faith during the conduct of this war - the systemic warcrimes are a big hint.  So it would be a very good idea to approach any peace negotiations very carefully.
    You do not have to like someone nor agree with their politics, but that does not automatically mean everything they say is incorrect.  Statements or positions need to be weighed against the facts, not affiliations, no matter which end of the spectrum the come from.  
    There are exceptions of course, for example if someone has demonstrated habitual lunacy or use of mis/dis-information, sure go ahead and burn them as a source, but the Ukrainian ambassador does not fall into that category as far as we know - unless you have proof beyond her possible post-secondary education?  You are burning her based in affiliation alone or at least it appears that way, and that is intellectually lazy to be blunt.
    Finally this whole line of thinking is a significant fracture point that has, and will be exploited by all sorts of players.  It is in fact step 2 in the subversive warfare playbook - widen the fractures that were already there and make them unsealable; the death of compromise.  Step 3 is to harden elements from either side of the fracture into organized and connected collectives that are able to self perpetuate and metastasize - a carcinogenic operation. This is a long standing recipe on how to destroy a society from the inside out.
    This is exactly the type of operations Russia did before 2014, and was attempting before this war started.  Every nation that borders Russia is combating this sort of influence.  And it will very likely be what Russia falls back on once this war is over - assuming there is a functioning Russia left.  China is also very good at this game, it is also out of their playbook, but they are much better at it.
    So you do not have to agree with the current US president - and sure go ahead and insult him based on ageism. But it is hard to disagree with the results in Ukraine, so far.  This has been one helluva tough one to steer through from a strategic and political level.  And it has not been perfect.  But for navigation through the first real proxy war of the 21st century I gotta give it a B+ so far.
    As to the rest of the politics, well you Americans can go argue that - preferably on another thread.
  6. Like
    Los reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Interesting post of one blogger, but it enough good reflects deep Russian mentality - to seek a new master if old one didn't live up to expectations.
     
    I will not translate all - main take is next:
    Russia has started conflict, having total superiority in all military branches, especially in aviation, long-range missiles and fleet. Russia had own ammunition production, when Ukriane hadn't. First three months allies didn't give to Ukraine nothing significant, only in June first 4 HIMARSes were aarived. And we managed to be fu...d on all northern front. Khokhols after this are highest race, than we are!!!! Fu..k, who else would stand against such advantage?! And now they gor modern equipment in that time we take old T-55 from storages. Now we will die on frontline and Tadjiks will come to our cities, Kadyrov call Russians to reproduce, in order he has someone "to millk" for money and subventions. What the fu..h sh..t?! Let khokhols capture us, they even look like us, they are highest race relatively us, if we after collapse of USSR reached the point where Tuvian fu..d fool [Shoigu] rules over us, and mountain sheep-fu...r [Kadyrov] compels all to excuse on video. This is total crash. Khokhols, we are ready to wear "sharovary" (Turkish-fasion trousers, popular among Cossacs since end of 17th centure, which became one of stereotype of Ukrainians), to make Ukrainian language as a state language and I already ordered "vyshyvanka" (traditional Ukrianian embroidered shirt) on Ali-Express. Forgive us, we recognize your superiority, we don't be slaves of "churkas" (snooty Russian name for all Middle-Asian and Caucasian nations) and Tuvians, protect us! 
  7. Like
    Los reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not really a pro, however...There were 5-7 guys crawling out of that bunker at the end of the vid which tells me that bunker was constructed with grenade/splintercover inside (as it should be), basically a bent of the slittrench after the entrance with ideally a firingslit to aim at the entrance. Now imagine what would happen if you storm the bunker 1 sec after the grenade right in front of the splintercover detonated in the entrance area of the bunker. Really not a good idea. You need something with more "Oomp" than a handgrenade fired or thrown into the entrance which really drives the rats out,
  8. Like
    Los got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It shouldn't come as the slightest surprise that there would be something akin to a significant SF presence in Ukraine. One of the core published missions of most SF are Foreign Internal defense and unconventional Warfare in the service of Host nation assistance. (Basically training and advising) in particular in high risk environments. Likewise general support of the intel and diplomatic personnel in the country. These are mundane but vital tasks.
  9. Like
    Los got a reaction from kluge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It shouldn't come as the slightest surprise that there would be something akin to a significant SF presence in Ukraine. One of the core published missions of most SF are Foreign Internal defense and unconventional Warfare in the service of Host nation assistance. (Basically training and advising) in particular in high risk environments. Likewise general support of the intel and diplomatic personnel in the country. These are mundane but vital tasks.
  10. Like
    Los got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It shouldn't come as the slightest surprise that there would be something akin to a significant SF presence in Ukraine. One of the core published missions of most SF are Foreign Internal defense and unconventional Warfare in the service of Host nation assistance. (Basically training and advising) in particular in high risk environments. Likewise general support of the intel and diplomatic personnel in the country. These are mundane but vital tasks.
  11. Like
    Los reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Once again: kit porn
    The aircraft (or tanks) in themselves aren't especially important. The system they operate within is everything.^ The USAF could be flying Phantoms and it would be almost as effective as it is with F-35s and F/A-18s.
    In some ways it's not surprising this pilot doesn't perceive the wider system, in the same way a fish doesn't perceive the water it swims in. But, you know. Pilots are supposed to be smart.
     
    ^ the canonical example here is the Germans using PzIIs to defeat French CharBs in 1940. The Germans didn't win that stoush because the PzII is an objectively better tank than the CharB.
  12. Upvote
    Los reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is an excuse which is given much too much traction in the West. Along with the alleged Russian trauma from World War 2, which is a variant of this argument.
    In fact, in order to feel safe from conventional invasion by the countries of the West it is sufficient that Russia takes stock of the poor conventional military capability of its neighbours, as well as their size. Against whom Russia needs that strategic depth in Belarus? Against Lithuanians, Poles,  Danes maybe? Poland is in the middle of crazy military procurement drive, but 1) it is going to have effects, if any, years in the future; 2) it would not have happened at all unless Putin attacked the Ukraine. So it hardly could have been Putin's motive to start that attack in the first place.
    Actually, Russia wants to control Ukraine and Belarus because it wants to have an imperium capable of bullying its neighbours politically, and it needs assets and bodies of those two countries to grow its imperial project. Putin is an autocrat who "owns" the country so for him, the physical enlargement of the state is like growing his own personal wealth. Also, this is a genuinely popular thing among his subjects, Russians like to feel stronger than their neighbours, but not to feel safe (the greatest threats to Russians are generally alcohol and other Russians), but to feel better than them and enjoy symbolically bullying them through various ritual acts of humiliation. Taking the disingenuous RUS narrative about security concerns at face value is just self-deception.
  13. Like
    Los got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The Ukrainians will deploy this capability faster than anyone expects because the fate of their  nation depends upon it. Just like everything else they have done.
  14. Like
    Los got a reaction from Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The Ukrainians will deploy this capability faster than anyone expects because the fate of their  nation depends upon it. Just like everything else they have done.
  15. Upvote
    Los reacted to LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's do some basic math here. Carlson's ratings for the year (as of the stats released 5 days ago) are 3.3 million average viewers. That means out of some 331-odd million Americans, a whopping 1% of the country is tuning into him. Yet, it seems like every time he opens his mouth and says something controversial here, out you come with the emotional, over-the-top comments about how he's undermining the country and how listeners are part of the pro-Russia faction in this country, yadda, yadda. Why is he that big of a deal to you?
    See, there it is. Just because some of us are disgusted with Washington DC politics doesn't mean that we aren't generally supportive of Ukraine's war against Russia. Just because we aren't all in lockstep with what you think, Steve, doesn't suddenly mean we are secretly agitating for Russia to win this war. 
    And, since I'm working backwards through responses here...
    It's relevant to the fact that, once again, our elected leaders waited until the last moment to "debate" these sort of measures, had a several-thousand page bill plopped on their desks shortly after midnight, right before Christmas, and are expected to sign off and vote Yes on it, else they will be called unpatriotic Americans for not doing all that should be done to support Ukraine and then be pilloried for it by all the talking heads on the left - who as a whole have a far greater reach than Carlson. That's not how our republic was ever supposed to run. 
    Say, didn't George Washington have something to say about all this?
    But hey, in the end, Ukraine got its $$$, so who cares, right?
  16. Like
    Los reacted to MSBoxer in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And it looks like I am back to skipping pages of comments at a time. Again. 
  17. Like
    Los reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh FFS, here we go
    I never thought I'd miss Kettler.
  18. Thanks
    Los reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That ain’t the magic number.  I suspect the number is about 1.1 - 1.5 million dead and or wounded, but there are a lot of caveats to that estimate.
    Humans can hold about 125 intimate relationships in their heads, max.  These are family, friends, acquaintances/neighbours, guys we hang out in forums with.  “Intimate” means we actually get a glimmer of empathy for them because we see them as people - of course empathy is a slippery beast and different for everyone, especially guys on a forum.
    So if that is “first order” then those intimate relationships, relationships are second order - so 125 times 125 = 15,625 (“technically”, because I know some guys here are going to be that picky, it is 125x124 because our connection should not be counted twice). People who are connected to the max amount of people we can give a crap about. (Assuming no overlaps but let’s try and keep it simple).  So this is “there is a guy I know from work whose cousin…” type of thing - two degrees of separation.
    In order to have an second order effect on 144 million people Russia need only have about 10,000 casualties in this war and they crossed that threshold months ago. This is the point where “I know someone who knows someone” effect kicks in.
    However, we humans are also pretty damned insular.  Just because the guy at the grocery store had a second cousin who got his leg blown off at Kharkiv does not mean I am going to march in the streets and overthrow the government.  For that no one can really calculate the tipping or saturation point easily.  One could argue it is 1 in 125 - which for Russia is about 1.1 million.  This would mean that the average Russian is likely to know someone directly who has been killed or wounded in this war - “the guy in the grocery store went to Kherson and got his legs blown off”.
    I am not sure that would even do it to be honest but as that number of dead and wounded grow the pressure on the average Russian’s little security bubble get higher and higher.  In order to ensure every single Russia household has at least one direct impact we are talking 58.6 million - https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/number-of-households-in-russia-2096160/
    That number will very likely set off the micro-social bomb unless Russia is truly “all in”.  The number for Ukraine is about 17 million - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_households
    Historical example - in WW1 Germany took 7.4 million casualties (https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/war_losses_germany)  with a population base as of 1910 of about 65 million (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Census_in_Germany). That is 1 in 8 Germans.  No data on German households, given that family sizes were larger but that is approaching the 1 per household line. Add to this food shortages and a bunch of other pressures it really is not that hard to see why Germany buckled, in fact it is pretty impressive they lasted as long as they did.
    But of course none of this takes into account context.  Is a nation in an existential war?  Who are they fighting?  How unified is their culture?  [aside: Russian mobilization concentrations in certain regions is a very bad idea as it creates schisms as some regions will feel the effects much more than others - this little exercise assumes uniform distribution of casualties, which we all know is not the case, but making it worse is a very bad idea]
    So the real question: when does Russia start to feel the pain enough to do something about it?  Almost impossible to answer in detail.  How invested are Russian in this war?  Seconds cousins of grocery guy?  Grocery guy?  My second cousin?  Brother, son or father?  Me? Just about every society will tolerate the Grocery Guy’s second cousin to a point. Unless the war is really upside down or the society is really anti-war - we had rumbling and push back here in Canada on Afghanistan and we were likely just below the grocery guys cousin in that war.
    Rate of loss is also a factor.  Over time the grocery guy’s cousin is going to die anyway.  So rates of loss = shock.  How fast those second order hit happen is important.  Over 20 years is a slow pressure, in 10 months the effect can be amplified.
    And then we have the internet effect.  We are able to make connections over greater distances. I am not sure if this is changed fundamentally how many connections we can make but online communities clearly have an effect as we have seen here. Before it had to be people in my neighbourhood that mattered, now it is a much wider net.  The converse of this is a desensitization effect.  
    We can also have a phenomenon I call spontaneous relevant convergence this is when something hits a note that resonant deeply within human collective psyche.  It creates convergence on a focal point from a large collective of people who would normally be completely disconnected.  For example, the was a dramatic difference in opinion and support wrt the 2015 European refugee crisis after that photo of the four year old boy washing up on the beach happened.  No one could predict that, nor are the mechanisms really well understood - some sort of empathetic transpositional response?   
    So here we are at let’s say 350k Russian casualties of some shape or sort.  That is about 1 in 400ish, well outside uniform intimate community impacts.  Some neighbourhoods are going to be severely impacted while other only see it on the evening news.  Plenty of room for denial and whatabout-isms.  Until that number gets to 1 in 125 - about 1.1 million, large swaths of Russia will only see this war at a distance.  A thunderstorm “over there”, I can raise an eyebrow, have an opinion and pretty much get on with my life.  Unless something happens that resonates, I can ignore the whole thing because the grocery guys cousins really doesn’t mean much to me. I do not have a significant sense of collective empathy or social responsibility. I just want to get through the freakin week.
    But once the storm get closer, faster…well then I start to think about my roof and my car. And we have not even touched the economic effects of this war, which are easily in that intimate area to some extent.  Finally, this is also likely why Putin is not mobilizing 5 million men, that is well into intimate communities across the entire nation, and he knows it.
  19. Like
    Los reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One possibility is that the Ukrainians are running a little info op to mess with the Russians heads. The other possibility is that the real reason Zelensky was in Kherson is to shake hands with the troops who were about to REALLY cross the Dnipro, and try to end this war by Christmas.
  20. Like
    Los got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Guys don't be perplexed because some planes looked unscathed from satellite photos. A few small holes in the side of any aircraft, or even suspected blast pressure damage will require maintenance teams to go over them with a fine tooth comb. And what's the status of the maintenance facilities, I saw a lot of blown up hangars in other pictures.
  21. Upvote
    Los reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Are they? From the photos all we can say is that some planes didn't burn (too much at least) and are not dismembered. Can't say what overpressure and falling debris/ shrapnel did to them.
  22. Upvote
    Los got a reaction from Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The farther in the rear, the poorer and more lax the security, the more targets open up for competent special operations. 
     
    Los
  23. Upvote
    Los got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The farther in the rear, the poorer and more lax the security, the more targets open up for competent special operations. 
     
    Los
  24. Like
    Los got a reaction from sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't think so. If Russians are defending Russia is one thing, defending Ukrainian objectives not so much, especially with all the firepower that can be brought to bear on them. Add that to the fact that the Russian officers themselves at all levels don't really now what they are doing, a complete lack of professionalism from top to bottom, trashed/incompetent logistics. Russia spent the past ten years building the wrong military to fight this war. 
  25. Like
    Los got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't think so. If Russians are defending Russia is one thing, defending Ukrainian objectives not so much, especially with all the firepower that can be brought to bear on them. Add that to the fact that the Russian officers themselves at all levels don't really now what they are doing, a complete lack of professionalism from top to bottom, trashed/incompetent logistics. Russia spent the past ten years building the wrong military to fight this war. 
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